Ghana’s recent gains in taming inflation could face a fresh test in June as the government’s partial withdrawal of fuel price relief measures threatens to push up transport costs and consumer prices.
The warning was issued by Government Statistician Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu during the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed headline inflation rising for a second consecutive month to 3.7 percent in May 2026 from 3.4 percent in April.
Although inflation remains far below the 18.4 percent recorded in May last year, the latest increase has raised concerns that the country’s prolonged disinflation trend may be beginning to lose momentum.
According to Dr. Iddrisu, government interventions in the petroleum sector played a crucial role in cushioning households and businesses from inflationary pressures over recent months by helping to stabilize transport costs despite fluctuations in food prices.
“While fuel prices have stayed broadly where they were, this is likely influenced by the suspension of selected margins and levies on ex-pump petroleum prices effective April 16, 2026,” he explained.
However, he cautioned that the inflation outlook could shift following government’s decision to scale back the fuel support programme.
“The partial withdrawal of the suspension effective May 16, 2026, will likely affect June inflation numbers,” Dr. Iddrisu stated.
The temporary fuel relief programme, introduced in April, saw government absorb part of the increase in petroleum prices to protect consumers from rising global oil costs. Under the arrangement, government absorbed GH¢2.00 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol.
The support was subsequently reduced in May, with diesel relief cut to GH¢1.07 per litre, a move analysts say could increase transportation and distribution costs throughout the economy.
The development coincides with growing pressure from some private transport operators, who are demanding a 20 percent increase in transport fares, citing higher operating costs and shrinking profit margins.
Any upward adjustment in fares could quickly feed into the prices of goods and services, given the central role transportation plays in moving both people and commodities across the country.
Dr. Iddrisu noted that relatively stable transport costs had so far helped offset some of the inflationary impact of rising food prices.
“Even as one staple like tomatoes surged, the lower cost of moving people and goods helped keep overall inflation in check,” he said.
He stressed that headline inflation figures do not always reflect the diverse experiences of households.
“This is exactly why we look beyond a single headline figure. At the same moment, a household can feel a sharp pinch at the vegetable store and modest relief at the pump and at the lorry station,” he added.
With fuel-related cost pressures building and transport operators pushing for higher fares, economists and policymakers will be closely monitoring the June inflation data for signs of whether the recent uptick is temporary or marks the beginning of a broader reversal in Ghana’s price stability gains.
The June figures are expected to provide a critical indication of how resilient the country’s inflation outlook remains in the face of emerging cost pressures.
