Ghanaian electricity consumers may have overpaid about GH¢1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to inflated exchange rate and inflation assumptions used in tariff setting, a policy review by the Centre for Environmental Management and Sustainable Energy (CEMSE) has revealed.
The report argues that current economic conditions support a double-digit reduction in electricity tariffs — potentially around 11 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
At the centre of the concerns is the methodology adopted by the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission (PURC), which applied a projected exchange rate of GH¢11.9735 to the dollar for Q4 2025, later adjusted to GH¢12.3715 to account for under-recovery claims. However, the actual average exchange rate for the period stood at GH¢10.8733, creating what CEMSE describes as an over-recovery of GH¢1.1002 per dollar.
Applied to total quarterly electricity consumption of 6,459 gigawatt-hours — with an estimated 60 percent of generation costs dollar-denominated — the group calculates that consumers paid roughly GH¢1.5 billion in costs utilities did not incur.
The report also flagged discrepancies in inflation assumptions. While PURC used an annual inflation rate of 12.43 percent in its Q4 model, the actual quarterly average was 6.6 percent, nearly half the projected figure.
Despite successive tariff increases, revenue performance at the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) has remained inconsistent. ECG recorded about GH¢1.4 billion in revenue in April 2025 before the first round of hikes. Revenue dipped to GH¢1.3 billion in May after a 14.75 percent increase, rose to GH¢1.6 billion in June, but fell again to GH¢1.3 billion in August despite further adjustments.
CEMSE maintains that with the exchange rate now hovering around GH¢10.99 to the dollar and projected Q1 2026 inflation at 3.4 percent, failure to implement a significant tariff reduction would undermine the credibility of the quarterly review mechanism. It insists that over-recoveries must be formally recognised and credited to consumers before any new adjustments are introduced.
The group warns that inaction could erode public trust in the regulatory framework and intensify financial pressure on households and businesses.
