The Bank of Ghana (BoG) is approaching its next interest rate decision with heightened caution, warning that recent macroeconomic improvements are not yet strong enough to justify further policy easing.
At the opening of the Central Bank’s 128th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Monday, January 26, 2026, policymakers indicated that the priority is to preserve hard-won gains in disinflation and stability, rather than rush into adjustments that could unsettle markets.
Deliberations at the first MPC meeting of the year are centred on how quickly policy can be recalibrated without undermining progress made in stabilising prices, the currency and investor sentiment.
Among the key issues shaping discussions are foreign exchange stability expectations, the economic and balance-sheet impact of the domestic gold purchasing programme, and heightened data scrutiny ahead of Ghana’s next IMF programme review in April.
Opening the meeting, BoG Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama stressed that restraint remains essential, cautioning that premature policy moves could reverse recent progress if market expectations are not carefully managed.
“The meeting is not about whether conditions have improved, because they clearly have. It is about how we respond to that improvement and how we ensure that decisions taken today remain robust under scrutiny tomorrow,” he said.
Dr. Asiama acknowledged that inflationary pressures have eased, the cedi has stabilised, and investor confidence is gradually returning, but described these gains as fragile and still vulnerable to shocks.
He explained that although coordinated monetary and fiscal actions have supported the recovery, the MPC must now test the durability of those gains and calibrate policy to support growth while preserving institutional credibility.
According to the Governor, four issues are central to this policy round: the sequencing of any policy adjustments, the sustainability of foreign exchange stability, the role of the gold purchasing programme, and external assessments under the IMF-supported programme.
“The real challenge before us is to lock in stability,” he added, noting that monetary policy must remain forward-looking and take into account domestic risks as well as global financial conditions, geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility.
His comments come amid growing market speculation of a possible rate cut following signs of economic recovery. However, the Bank’s cautious tone suggests policymakers are likely to favour a measured approach, placing credibility and expectation management ahead of rapid easing.
The MPC is expected to announce its policy rate decision on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, a move that will be closely watched by markets, businesses and investors for signals on the direction of monetary policy in the months ahead.
