The Africa Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP) has urged government to safeguard the Big Push infrastructure programme against growing oil revenue volatility, warning that declining petroleum production and receipts under the 2026 Budget could undermine the sustainability of the flagship initiative unless urgent fiscal and policy reforms are undertaken.
In its review of the budget presented to Parliament on November 13, 2025, ACEP said crude oil production and receipts have fallen so significantly that tying long-term infrastructure contracts to petroleum revenues exposes the country to fiscal stress, project delays and rising debt.
Oil slump undermines infrastructure plans
According to ACEP, total petroleum receipts between January and September 2025 fell by 35.7 per cent, from US$1.07 billion in 2024 to US$600.8 million in 2025, while production dropped by 15 per cent to 27.93 million barrels.
The think tank warned that if current trends continue, full-year petroleum revenues could underperform by about 20.8 per cent, making oil an unreliable source for funding the Big Push through the Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA).
ACEP noted that the government has no control over global oil prices or production outturns, yet is committing to long-term infrastructure contracts without guaranteed revenue to service them.
Stabilisation buffers may be overwhelmed
While the Ghana Stabilisation Fund exists to cushion revenue shortfalls, ACEP said the scale of Big Push spending could quickly deplete the fund, leaving the country exposed.
It therefore urged government to diversify financing sources, strengthen fiscal buffers, and accelerate policies that boost output from existing fields while attracting new upstream investments.
Investment delays and governance risks
ACEP attributed the production decline not only to natural field depletion but also to policy and regulatory bottlenecks that have slowed new investments.
It expressed concern that the National Petroleum Revitalisation Strategy (NPRS), referenced in the budget, has not been made public, even as government reportedly signed a petroleum agreement with Tristar Upstream Oil and Gas for Block 1 in the Western Basin just days before the budget presentation.
ACEP said limited public information about the company raises questions about due diligence and parliamentary oversight.
Gas-to-power project faces sector realities
The think tank also raised red flags over the proposed 1,200MW state-owned thermal power plant, anchored on gas from the second train of the Gas Processing Plant (GPP2).
While the project aims to reduce reliance on costly liquid fuels, ACEP warned that Ghana’s power sector liquidity challenges could undermine its viability, as state-owned generators remain disadvantaged under the Cash Waterfall Mechanism.
Petroleum savings under pressure
ACEP further criticised plans to revise the investment policy of the Ghana Petroleum Funds (GPF) to allow domestic infrastructure financing.
It warned that drawing on the Ghana Heritage Fund meant to safeguard wealth for future generations could erode intergenerational equity, especially given Ghana’s weak public investment record and the politicisation of state-owned enterprises.
Power and mining sector weaknesses
ACEP said ECG’s improved revenue declarations are largely the result of tariff increases rather than efficiency gains, and warned that structural losses in the distribution sector will continue to drive debt.
In the mining sector, ACEP criticised the removal of the 1.5 per cent withholding tax on small-scale gold sales, noting that although the sector now produces over half of Ghana’s gold, its contribution to state revenue remains weak.
The think tank called for stronger production reporting systems and faster rollout of gold traceability mechanisms through GoldBod to curb smuggling and improve transparency.
The FULL report is published below;
By: Christian Kpesese
