“Donald Trump is often portrayed as impulsive in his foreign policy decisions. That interpretation misses a deeper pattern. Beneath the rhetoric lies a strategic calculation shaped by energy security, looming conflict, and the fragile balance of global oil supply.
Rising tensions between Israel and Iran have introduced a serious risk to global stability. Iran has repeatedly warned that any direct conflict could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical maritime corridor through which nearly one fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Such a move would not merely affect Iran’s exports. It would disrupt shipments from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar, sending shockwaves through global energy markets.
For the United States and Europe, the consequences would be immediate. Oil prices would surge. Inflationary pressures would intensify. Economic recovery efforts would stall. In such a scenario, securing alternative sources of crude would become an urgent strategic priority rather than a market choice.
The options are limited. Libya and Nigeria lack the stability and infrastructure to rapidly increase output at the scale required to meet global demand. European production is negligible. Russia remains a major producer, but geopolitical rivalry, sanctions, and domestic constraints limit its reliability as an emergency supplier for Western economies.
This leaves Venezuela. With the largest proven oil reserves in the world, Venezuela represents the single most significant untapped source of crude outside the Middle East. Yet its leadership remains openly hostile to Washington, and its oil sector has been weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement, and political isolation.
Against this backdrop, Trump’s hard-line posture toward Venezuela takes on a different meaning. The seizure of Venezuelan oil cargoes, the enforcement of maritime sanctions, and sustained pressure on the Maduro government are not merely punitive measures. They reflect an effort to ensure that Venezuela’s vast oil reserves do not become inaccessible to the United States and its allies in a moment of global crisis.
The United States has moved to control and market seized Venezuelan crude on international markets, effectively treating it as a strategic reserve. These actions signal a belief that energy security must be actively managed, especially in an era when regional conflicts can quickly escalate into global economic disruptions.
Critics argue that Venezuela’s oil industry cannot be revived quickly enough to serve as a reliable buffer in a crisis. That may be true in the short term. However, Trump’s approach suggests a longer view: shaping political outcomes today to prevent supply vulnerabilities tomorrow.
In this reading, Trump is not reacting to immediate events but preparing for scenarios he believes are inevitable. A major conflict involving Iran would redraw energy routes overnight. By acting early, Washington seeks to ensure it is not left dependent on adversaries or unstable regions when that moment arrives.
Whether this strategy proves successful remains uncertain. What is clear is that energy, not ideology, sits at the center of the calculation. In a world where oil still underpins global power, foresight may matter more than diplomacy alone”.
By Bright Kwashie Dzokoto
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