Ghana’s petroleum revenue could face mounting pressure if the persistent decline in oil production is not urgently addressed, the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) has cautioned in its 2025 Semi-Annual Report.
The report paints a concerning picture of declining output across all three producing oil fields—Jubilee, Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN), and Sankofa-Gye Nyame (SGN) and warns that the trend could undermine fiscal stability and energy sector planning.
Sharp Decline in Oil Output
According to the report, total crude oil production for the first half of 2025 stood at 18.42 million barrels, representing a 25.92% decline from 24.86 million barrels recorded in the same period in 2024
According to the 2025-Semini-Annual report, Jubilee Field produced 11.02 million barrels, down 32.8% from 16.41 million barrels in H1 2024. Average daily output dropped from 90,755 barrels per day to 60,898.
The report said TEN Field output fell by 14% to 2.97 million barrels, affected by a mini-shutdown to replace a flare tip and persistent reservoir decline.
SGN Field recorded 4.42 million barrels, an 11.6% drop year-on-year, mainly due to intermittent operational disruptions.
Cumulatively, Ghana’s oil production since 2010 has reached 675 million barrels, but the five-year downward trend highlights deep-seated structural issues aging fields, inadequate reservoir maintenance, and lack of new producing assets
Revenue and Price Pressures
The production slump has directly impacted government revenue. Petroleum receipts for the period plunged by 56%, from US$840.77 million in H1 2024 to US$370.34 million in H1 2025.
The Ghana Group’s average achieved crude price also fell by 12.99%, from US$86.12 per barrel to US$74.93, deepening fiscal shortfalls.
PIAC attributes the revenue contraction to both lower output and weaker international prices, noting that the reduced inflows could constrain the Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA), petroleum savings, and allocations to the Ghana Petroleum Funds.
Declining Upstream Investment
The Committee expressed alarm over Ghana’s failure to attract new upstream investments, revealing that no new Petroleum Agreement has been signed since 2018.
. PIAC warns that lack of investment, could erode investor confidence and slow down the country’s ability to replace depleting reserves.
“The lack of new discoveries and development activity has left Ghana’s production heavily dependent on aging fields,” the report observes. “Without new investments, national production and revenue potential will continue to shrink.
Key Recommendations
To reverse the trend and safeguard energy and fiscal stability, PIAC outlined several urgent interventions including the following:
- Arrest the production decline: The Ministry of Energy and allied agencies should intensify efforts to stem output losses through enhanced reservoir maintenance and operational efficiency.
- Attract new upstream investment: The government should restore Ghana’s competitiveness by streamlining regulatory frameworks and incentivizing exploration.
- Strengthen GNPC’s capacity: PIAC recommends revising the GNPC Law and better resourcing the Corporation to provide leadership in exploiting petroleum resources amid the global energy transition.
- Improve governance and collaboration: The Ghana Revenue Authority, Petroleum Commission, and Bank of Ghana should coordinate to recover surface rental arrears, which surged from US$439,000 to US$2.82 million in just one year.
- Enhance ABFA utilization: The Finance Ministry and District Assemblies Common Fund (DACF) should develop stricter guidelines to ensure transparency and local participation in ABFA-funded projects.
Broader Implications
The Committee warns that continued production decline could jeopardize Ghana’s petroleum-driven fiscal buffers, weaken the Ghana Stabilisation and Heritage Funds, and affect macroeconomic stability.
With global energy markets shifting towards renewables, PIAC emphasizes the urgency for Ghana to balance fossil fuel optimization with a structured transition plan.
“Ghana’s upstream petroleum sector faces a pivotal juncture,” the report concludes. “The path forward lies in restoring competitiveness, unlocking untapped reserves, and ensuring a predictable regulatory environment to sustain petroleum revenues.”
Global oil demand growth is expected to moderate in 2025 amid economic uncertainties, while crude prices hover around mid-70s per barrel.
PIAC’s outlook underscores that unless Ghana accelerates upstream reforms and diversifies its revenue sources, fiscal vulnerabilities could deepen in the years ahead.
By: Christian Kpesese
